Signal family: ownership migration

The ownership family reads wallets by USD floor and the top-10 share: a rotation to large holders (the whale band growing while the smallest wallets shrink) or back to the crowd, the holder base growing or shrinking by a meaningful share, and the top-10 share moving steadily with the most recent days agreeing.

The family has 6 rules.

However many fire, its pull on either side of the balance is capped, so rules that read the same observation can't stack into a verdict on their own.

1. 1

   What the family reads: wallets by usd floor and top-10 share. Its rules run on settled days only; each either fires, stays quiet (checked, nothing stood out) or says why it can't run.

2. 2

   Cohorts from the holder floors and the top-10 share over the window.

3. 3

   Each fired rule adds to its side of the balance, more when it fired strongly; the family's total on each side is capped, however many of its rules fire.

HighShape, not data

Bull rules in the family fired: evidence on the buying side, capped however many fire.

LowShape, not data

Bear rules in the family fired: evidence on the selling side, capped the same way.

RisingShape, not data

A rule turning on: the readout and the feed show it as a new signal, with the day its event began where the rule has one.

FallingShape, not data

A rule turning off: the 7-day snippets list it under signals no longer firing.

Evidence in the data, never advice

• USD floors move with price: a wallet can change band without trading.
• Rules in one family read the same observation, so several firing together are one fact said several ways; that is why the family is capped.
• Hand-set rules, not tested against what happened next.

• Rotation to large holdersBull

  Supply is moving from small wallets to large ones. Bands are USD floors, so the rule only fires when price did not rise enough to lift wallets over the line on its own.

  Reads: Holders + Cost basis.

• Rotation to the crowdBear

  Supply is moving from large wallets to small ones. Bands are USD floors, so the rule only fires when price did not fall enough to drop wallets under the line on its own.

  Reads: Holders + Cost basis.

• Holder base growingBull

  More wallets hold a meaningful position than at the start of the window.

  Reads: Holders.

• Holder base shrinkingBear

  Fewer wallets hold a meaningful position than at the start of the window.

  Reads: Holders.

• Largest holders addingBull

  Supply is concentrating in the ten largest non-infrastructure wallets: size is accumulating (it also raises concentration risk).

  Reads: Concentration.

• Largest holders distributingBear

  The ten largest non-infrastructure wallets are letting supply go to the rest of the market.

  Reads: Concentration.