Signal family: smart money

The smart-money family reads the flagged cohort's daily net flow: runs of days buying or selling, a month of accumulation or distribution sized against the cohort's position, and the cohort turning from seller to buyer (or back) between the most recent days and the weeks before them.

The family has 6 rules.

However many fire, its pull on either side of the balance is capped, so rules that read the same observation can't stack into a verdict on their own.

1. 1

   What the family reads: flagged smart-money wallets' net flow. Its rules run on settled days only; each either fires, stays quiet (checked, nothing stood out) or says why it can't run.

2. 2

   The cohort's settled daily net and its latest position, which the month's net is set against.

3. 3

   Each fired rule adds to its side of the balance, more when it fired strongly; the family's total on each side is capped, however many of its rules fire.

HighShape, not data

Bull rules in the family fired: evidence on the buying side, capped however many fire.

LowShape, not data

Bear rules in the family fired: evidence on the selling side, capped the same way.

RisingShape, not data

A rule turning on: the readout and the feed show it as a new signal, with the day its event began where the rule has one.

FallingShape, not data

A rule turning off: the 7-day snippets list it under signals no longer firing.

Evidence in the data, never advice

• A small cohort on one token can be one wallet.
• Rules in one family read the same observation, so several firing together are one fact said several ways; that is why the family is capped.
• Hand-set rules, not tested against what happened next.

• Smart money buying streakBull

  Wallets with a track record keep adding, day after day.

  Reads: Smart money.

• Smart money selling streakBear

  Wallets with a track record keep selling, day after day.

  Reads: Smart money.

• Smart money accumulatingBull

  Wallets with a track record have been net buyers for the month, in size relative to what they hold.

  Reads: Smart money.

• Smart money distributingBear

  Wallets with a track record have been net sellers for the month, in size relative to what they hold.

  Reads: Smart money.

• Smart money turned buyerBull

  Wallets with a track record switched from selling to buying.

  Reads: Smart money.

• Smart money turned sellerBear

  Wallets with a track record switched from buying to selling.

  Reads: Smart money.