Signal family: price vs cost basis

The cost-basis family reads MVRV, holder value against cost basis, and asks where price sits against what holders paid and how it got there: below or above cost (context only), MVRV rising or falling, crossing back over 1 and holding it, being turned back at the cost line or using it as a floor, and buyers stepping in or the crowd leaving while price is under cost.

The family has 10 rules.

However many fire, its pull on either side of the balance is capped, so rules that read the same observation can't stack into a verdict on their own.

1. 1

   What the family reads: holder value against realized cap (mvrv). Its rules run on settled days only; each either fires, stays quiet (checked, nothing stood out) or says why it can't run.

2. 2

   MVRV per settled day, skipping days whose realized cap is too small to read; the rules need enough usable days. A trend is a sizeable move of the ratio over the window; a touch is MVRV coming close to 1 and moving away again.

3. 3

   Each fired rule adds to its side of the balance, more when it fired strongly; the family's total on each side is capped, however many of its rules fire.

HighShape, not data

Bull rules in the family fired: evidence on the buying side, capped however many fire.

LowShape, not data

Bear rules in the family fired: evidence on the selling side, capped the same way.

RisingShape, not data

A rule turning on: the readout and the feed show it as a new signal, with the day its event began where the rule has one.

FallingShape, not data

A rule turning off: the 7-day snippets list it under signals no longer firing.

Evidence in the data, never advice

• Below and above cost are context: they place the token, they don't vote.
• Rules in one family read the same observation, so several firing together are one fact said several ways; that is why the family is capped.
• Hand-set rules, not tested against what happened next.

• Below cost basisContext

  Where price sits against what holders paid. Context for the other rules, not a vote either way.

  Reads: Cost basis.

• Above cost basisContext

  Where price sits against what holders paid. Context for the other rules, not a vote either way.

  Reads: Cost basis.

• MVRV risingBull

  Holder value is gaining on what holders paid: price is outrunning the cost basis.

  Reads: Cost basis.

• MVRV fallingBear

  Holder value is losing ground against what holders paid: price is falling through the cost basis.

  Reads: Cost basis.

• Reclaimed cost basisBull

  The average holder went from a loss back to a profit and has held it.

  Reads: Cost basis.

• Lost cost basisBear

  The average holder went from a profit into a loss and has stayed there.

  Reads: Cost basis.

• Turned back at costBear

  Price reached what holders paid and was sold back down: break-even holders used it to exit.

  Reads: Cost basis.

• Held cost as a floorBull

  Price fell to what holders paid and was bought back up: the cost line acted as support.

  Reads: Cost basis.

• Buying below costBull

  Price is under what holders paid and buyers are stepping in through the pools.

  Reads: Cost basis + DEX netflow + Volume.

• Leaving below costBear

  Price is under what holders paid and the crowd is leaving through the pools.

  Reads: Cost basis + DEX netflow + Volume.