Profit-taking and loss-taking

A single day of realized profit or loss means little on its own.

What matters is when it stands out from the token's usual day, and whether it is still going on or already behind.

Three rules read the realized-PnL panel this way. Profit-taking: the last week's realized profit stands well above the token's usual day. A loss-taking wave: the same for losses. A capitulation flush: one loss day far above the usual, some days back, with the last week quiet since.

The first two are bear evidence: holders are cashing out now. The flush is bull evidence: the sellers who wanted out at a loss have mostly left.

1. 1

   Realized gains and losses per settled day; a rule needs enough stored days.

2. 2

   Waves: the last week against the token's usual day, with a minimum in dollars so dust doesn't count.

3. 3

   Flush: one loss day standing far above the token's usual loss day, sizeable in dollars, with the week since gone quiet.

HighShape, not data

A wave well above the token's usual day: holders are acting together.

LowShape, not data

Realized PnL near its usual level: no wave.

RisingShape, not data

A wave building in the last week.

FallingShape, not data

A spike fading: once a large loss day is a few days old and the week since is quiet, the flush rule reads it as behind the token.

Evidence in the data, never advice

• The yardstick is the token's own usual day, so a quiet token can show a wave on modest dollars; the minimum totals keep the smallest out.
• These rules are hand-set and not tested against what happened next.
• The realized figures are an approximation, sound for trends, not accounting.